BIGMARLEY3’S UFC ON ESPN+ 11 DRAFTKINGS FANTASY BREAKDOWN

This weekend, we have a 12-fight card in Sweden. It turned out to be a 13-fight card, but we only had Oezdemir/Latifi fall off, so be sure they aren’t in your lineups. DraftKings has some solid contests for us to acquire a great deal of cash from this week. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $25k goes to 1st place with a total of 100k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only competition for $175,000. There will be 100 qualifiers for that contest and they’ll compete for a $50k first place cost and that $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that match. I will attempt to receive my 3rd chair this week. Those Qualifier only competitions can be actual bankroll suckers, so be cautious chasing those too hard. I will probably stick to the top GPP this week and then throw a small number of entries at that $25k prize, then I will take a few shots in the Q. I will also be publishing H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs through the week to receive a good amount of play into cash games.
With that said, let’s get into a couple plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of this week:
Cash Game play of this week — Alexander Gustafsson — $9,300
Gus is my most confident pick of this card this week and he is also the largest betting favored on the card. I think we can stack this principal event in cash games and utilize both Gus and Anthony Smith, but I am not sure whether I’ll do this or not. I will for sure have Gustafsson within my cash lineup however and he’s who I will be starting that lineup with. With 5-rounds to use I believe he has the highest ceiling about the card and that I think he gets a finish in this fight. Possibly with multiple takedowns. He will be extremely popular in GPPs so in the event that you want to escape from him I believe that the tournaments are the areas for that. I will be locking him into my money lineup though .
GPP play of the week — Tonya Evinger — $8,600
On DraftKings, I enjoy Evinger in her struggle and I have zero interest in Lansberg. Evinger’s best path to victory is penalizing Lansberg on the floor and that scores tremendously if she can do that. I also believe she could get a finish. I think she’s in play in all formats and I do think she has 100+ upside down here and that’s the reason she’s my GPP play of the week. There aren’t a lot of UFC matchups I’d say that for with Evinger at this point in her career, but this one looks perfect for her. I believe she dominates this battle and ends it with floor in pound in round 2 or 1. If that’s the case, she should score well and possibly win somebody $25k.
Underdog play of the week — Devin Clark — $7,500
I’m pressured to play with Devin Clark this week since he’s just $7.5k however he is the current gaming favorite. I love that kind of worth on DraftKings and that’s what is forcing me to roll up him. We have to include”underdogs” in our DK lineups and if we can really get a favorite, or possibly a roster with 6 favorites, then which helps our odds of hitting all 6 fights and taking down a GPP. Clark should be hot this week as well due to this value so I think he is in play for a cash game block and if you want, but in GPPs you’ll need to have him more than ~33% of your lineups to get any leverage over the area.
Fade of this week — Duda Santana $8,600
Duda Santana is an easy fade for me . She is $8.6k but she’s the underdog about the betting line. She’s also +365 to win ITD. If I’m paying that price on DK I need higher completing upside or somebody who will be going for a lot of takedowns. I don’t see her having a lot of a ceiling in this fight even though she does win so I don’t see her being on the 25k lineup. That is why I will be complete fading Santana this week. If I had been making 150 lineups afterward I would include her in the mix, but I’d need 50 lineups before I even contemplated using her.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If You’d like my own full-card breakdown where I breakdown every fight on the card and give my full DraftKings analysis, as well as all my pick predictions, you’ll find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium stakes are offered at that link too. I am 79-48 to get +256.49u (+$25,649) because May 19th, 2018 on Premium Plays)

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