This weekend, we’ve got a 13-fight card in Milwaukee which is going to be the last UFC on FOX card on account of this new ESPN deal. We are back to getting smaller prize pools with this occasion but there’s still good money to be won. The main GPP is a $10 entry with $15,000 to 1st place. Those huge GPPs with a nice high trophy are always my favourite contests to pursue so I will be shooting some shots at that. Aside from that, I’ll adhere to my 3-entry maximum & single entry GPPs. I’ll also be picking up H2Hs through the week and that I will find a good amount of play in cash games. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like for Saturday and my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Kevin Lee ($9,000)
The main event is nearly always the best fight to get into money games and stacking both fighters from a 5-round battle usually makes a lot of sense. I think you can pile the most important event here too, but I think Kevin Lee is the must drama of the two. He is a -335 favored and -135 ITD in order that he wins he’s going to score highly and according to Vegas he’s a 77% probability of winning. In addition, he scored 164 DK points in his final fight so not only does he even possess a high ground, but he probably has the highest ceiling on the card too. That is where I will be starting my money lineup this week.
GPP drama of the week — Jared Gordon ($8,600)
After weigh-ins we saw a great deal of money come in on Joaquim Silva and this struggle is virtually a PK fight on the betting odds today. Usually when that happens we see the possession on DraftKings follow suit and the underdog gains ownership due to the value. I think Gordon’s possession will go down because of this and that’s what makes him a fantastic GPP play. Gordon strikes at the maximum rate on the card landing 6.68 sig strikes per minute. He also lands 3.41 takedowns each 15-minutes. He does not even require a finish to score 100+ points and that is why I enjoy him in this place. I am not guaranteeing a win by any means, but when he does win then he must score well.
Underdog play of this week — Mike Rodriguez ($7,500)
Mike Rodriguez is 1,200 less costly than Adam Milstead in this matchup, but he’s just +115 compared to Milstead’s -135 betting line. I adore the value we are getting there, and that I believe Rodriguez wins this fight. I do expect him to become one of the very popular underdogs on the card, however it’s chalk I am willing to eat. IF Rodriquez does win then it is probably going to be by knockout so not only would he have the triumph, but he would score highly as well. I believe if he can win this battle then he ends up on the 1st place lineup and he is my favorite underdog of this week for that reason.
Fade of the week — Drakkar Klose ($9,300)
I am not fading Klose because I believe he loses, I am really picking him to acquire a Unanimous Conclusion. I am fading him since he is $9.3k and together with his fighting style that I do not see him becoming over 10x that wages. If I am making 20 lineups this weekend Klose will be in 0 of them. Klose has 3 UFC wins so far in his profession and he has scored 63, 68, and 74 DK points in those 3 wins. If he scores around this area again in this particular fight, then pretty much kills your chances in winning a GPP as the other men in that $9k range likely score higher and probably even over 100-points. This makes Klose my fade of this week.
If you’d like my own full-card DraftKings breakdown using analysis on each fight, my private strategies & suggestions, and also my selection outlook for every fight then you can discover that beneath the Premium Picks tab on MMAoddsbreaker should you click on Upcoming Picks. Or you can just go to this link below:
(Premium bets are offered at that link too. I am 47-28 to get +169.81un (+$16,981) because May 19th on Premium Plays. I’m also +75.37u the previous 7 weeks!)