This weekend, we have a 12-fight card with two name struggles in Toronto, Canada. We are back to using PPV sized competitions on DraftKings this week and there are some strong GPPs to pursue this week. The main GPP is a $10 entrance with $25,000 to 1st place. Those are always my favorite contests to pursue so I will be shooting some shots at that. Other than that, I will stick to my 3-entry max & solitary entry GPPs. I will also be picking up H2Hs throughout the week and that I will find a good quantity of play in cash games. With that said, here are a few plays I enjoy this week in Addition to my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of this week — Joanna Jedrzejczyk ($6,800)
JJ might be the simplest cash game punt of all time in $6.8k. The lineup for Fight Goes To Decision is now -195 and if we are getting 5-rounds out of JJ with all the striking volume she puts out then we’ve got a solid flooring there and it doesn’t matter if she loses or wins. At the price tag she allows you to cover up for some heavy favorites and if we could get 4 additional areas to win with a ~40-point loss from JJ in our lineup then we will be sitting very pretty in our money games this weekend.
GPP play of the week — Thiago Santos ($8,800)
Fight Doesn’t Go To Conclusion is currently lined at -495 for this battle. The most probable outcome is that somebody in this struggle gets knocked out in 15-minutes. With that knockout likely comes at one 10-point dip down. If this may be in the 1st round, then you are already at 100-points even if it’s merely the 1st punch/kick of the evening. At $8.8k that is more than enough to give you a chance at 1st place at a GPP. Thiago is the favorite in this struggle and Manuwa is 38-years old now, so that he can not have a lot of time in the game left. I believe we role with the favored here and throw into our GPP lineups and wait for the fireworks.
Underdog play of the week — Matthew Lopez ($7,300)
Matthew Lopez is my underdog of the week because of his wrestling/grappling possible. I believe he’s a underdog here. Lopez dropped his last 2 fights by knockout, so that is what I’d worry about most with him Brad Katona is most likely the better striker of the two but he’s never knocked anybody out, so I think we have a solid flooring here at $7.3k even if this fight does remain standing since I do not see Katona knocking Lopez out. I think Lopez is probably the better wrestler of both though and I believe he lands several takedowns in this battle and may win a choice using a wrestling-heavy game plan. Lopez lands 3.13 takedowns per 15-minutes at a 57 percent accuracy, and if he is becoming bogged up on the toes I am certain that he is going to be going for much more than that here. At $7.3k I think Lopez makes for a good play in most formats and that I believe he has a split decision win here as the street underdog.
Fade of the week — Katlyn Chookagian ($8,700)
I am fading a couple of fighters this week personally, but the individual I never considered using was Katlyn Chookagian. It is not that I do not think she could win, because she for sure could, and I believe she does. However, I don’t see her paying off an $8.7k DK salary with a win. I think we would need a finish from her in this struggle to get 10x that salary and I think that’s quite unlikely to take place. Or, she’ll need FightMetric to count all her screams as important strikes. The maximum Chookagian has ever scored in a UFC fight so far in her profession is 83 DK points which was against Irene Aldana who sets a much higher rate than Jessica Eye does. Even if she could get 83-points here afterward still would not be enough here to place her at the winning lineup at her $8.7k price tag. I think if you’re making 20 or less lineups this Saturday you may safely fade Chookagian and when she gets a win it shouldn’t hurt much.
Thank you for reading this and decent luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle on the card and also provide my full DraftKings analysis, in Addition to all of my pick predictions, you’ll find that for only $7.99 at this link below: